Navigating Uncertainties: The Delphi Method in Political Risk Analysis

Harnessing Collective Wisdom for Strategic Resilience in International Business

Introduction

In the ever-evolving landscape of international business, where political shifts can significantly impact operations, political risk analysis becomes a crucial facet of strategic decision-making. Among the arsenal of tools employed for this purpose, the Delphi Method stands out as a robust technique, originating from the Cold War era and designed to extract consensus from a panel of experts.

Understanding the Delphi Method

1. Development and Origin
— Definition: The Delphi Method was developed by the RAND Corporation during the Cold War.
— Insight: Originating from a period of intense geopolitical uncertainties, the method was crafted to navigate complex political landscapes.

2. Consensus Building
— Definition: The technique aims to achieve consensus from a panel of experts on specific political issues.
— Insight: By gathering diverse expert opinions, the method seeks to distill a collective understanding of potential political shifts or legislative changes.